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| 6.0: RANGE LOW: -10.0 to HIGH 10.0 |
| -1.0: RANGE NEG: -10.0 to POS 10.0 |
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| NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion |
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| Profile for [email protected] (nhcwebmaster)
The nhcwebmaster is the official webmaster for the National Hurricane Center (NHC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This author is responsible for managing and maintaining the NHC’s website, ensuring timely updates and accurate dissemination of hurricane and tropical weather information to the public. The role involves coordinating with meteorologists and other experts to provide critical data, forecasts, and warnings to help protect lives and property during severe weather events. |
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**000 AXNT20 KNHC 231213 TWDAT**
**Tropical Weather Discussion**
**NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL**
**1215 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025**
---
### Tropical Weather Discussion for:
- North America
- Central America
- Gulf of America
- Caribbean Sea
- Northern sections of South America
- Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC.
---
### SPECIAL FEATURES
**Tropical Storm Melissa**
- Location: Near 15.0N 74.9W at 23/0900 UTC (210 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica)
- Movement: WNW at 3 kt
- Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb
- Maximum sustained winds: 45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt
- Weather: Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms up to 95 nm in the NW quadrant from the center, and farther southeast and south of the center from 12N to 16N between 75W
- Seas: Peak seas 18 to 20 ft just north and east of the center
**Forecast:**
- Slow northwest or north motion expected during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn over the weekend
- Expected to be nearer Jamaica and southwestern Haiti during the next couple of days
- Little change in strength next day or so, but significant strengthening expected by late Friday and over the weekend
- Forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days
- Swells generated by Melissa expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days
**Advisories:**
- Consult local weather offices for updates
- See National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
- Latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST:
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
- [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php |
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| The sentiment of the article, a Tropical Weather Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center, is primarily neutral and factual, consistent with the nature of official meteorological reports. Below is a detailed sentiment analysis:
**Tone and Style:**
- The tone is professional, technical, and objective.
- The language is precise and formal, aimed at providing clear and accurate weather information to meteorologists, mariners, emergency managers, and the general public.
- There is no emotional language or subjective commentary; the focus is on data and forecasts.
**Content Sentiment:**
- Informative and Cautious: The discussion provides detailed updates on Tropical Storm Melissa, including its location, movement, wind speeds, pressure, and forecasted path and intensity. The tone conveys caution regarding the storm’s potential strengthening into a hurricane and its expected impacts on Jamaica, Haiti, and surrounding areas.
- Warning and Advisory: While not alarmist, the text includes implicit warnings about hazardous conditions such as heavy showers, strong thunderstorms, high seas (18 to 20 ft near the storm), and swells affecting coastal regions. This conveys a sense of urgency and preparedness.
- Neutral Descriptions of Weather Features: Descriptions of other weather phenomena such as tropical waves, monsoon troughs, cold fronts, and sea conditions are conveyed in a neutral, matter-of-fact manner without emotional overtones.
- Forecasts and Recommendations: The article includes recommendations to consult local weather offices and official advisories, reinforcing the seriousness of the situation without expressing panic.
**Overall Sentiment:**
- The overall sentiment is neutral with an undertone of caution.
- The report aims to inform and prepare rather than to alarm or reassure.
- It balances technical detail with practical guidance to support safety and awareness.
**Summary:**
This weather discussion is a standard, authoritative meteorological communication that maintains neutrality while emphasizing the need for vigilance due to Tropical Storm Melissa’s potential development into a hurricane and associated hazardous weather conditions. It is designed to inform stakeholders and the public, encouraging preparedness through factual reporting and official advisory references. |
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| The global relevance of this Tropical Weather Discussion article from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lies in several key areas:
1. Regional Weather Impact with Wider Implications:
The article details Tropical Storm Melissa's current status, forecast track, and potential intensification into a hurricane near Jamaica and Haiti. This has immediate relevance for the Caribbean region, Central America, and parts of the Atlantic basin, but also affects global maritime routes, international disaster preparedness, and humanitarian aid planning.
2. Maritime and Aviation Safety:
The discussion includes information on sea states, wind speeds, and storm-generated swells affecting the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean. This information is crucial for international shipping, fishing industries, and aviation operations that cross these regions, impacting global trade and travel safety.
3. Meteorological Monitoring and Forecasting:
The article provides data on tropical waves, monsoon troughs, and frontal systems in the Atlantic and adjacent regions. These features influence weather patterns not only locally but can also affect atmospheric circulation on a hemispheric scale, impacting weather systems far beyond the immediate area.
4. Climate and Environmental Studies:
Tropical storms and hurricanes are significant components of the Earth’s climate system. Tracking their formation, intensity, and movement contributes to global climate models, helping scientists understand trends in storm frequency and intensity related to climate change.
5. International Coordination and Response:
The discussion encourages consultation of local weather offices and provides links to official forecasts, emphasizing the interconnectedness of weather monitoring agencies worldwide. This facilitates coordinated disaster response and preparedness efforts that have global humanitarian and economic implications.
In summary, while the article is region-specific, its implications for international maritime safety, climate science, global weather patterns, and disaster management confer substantial global relevance. |
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| Threat Assessment for Tropical Storm Melissa and Related Weather Features (as of October 23, 2025)
---
### 1. Tropical Storm Melissa Overview:
- Location & Movement:
Centered near 15.0N 74.9W (210 nautical miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica), moving WNW at 3 knots.
- Intensity:
Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb
Maximum sustained winds: 45 knots (52 mph) with gusts to 55 knots (63 mph)
- Current Weather Conditions:
Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms within 95 nm NW quadrant and southeast/south between 12N-16N and 75W.
Peak seas near the center: 18-20 feet.
### 2. Forecast and Expected Development:
- Track:
Slow northwest or north motion expected next couple of days, then turning west over the weekend.
Forecast positions bring Melissa closer to Jamaica and southwestern Haiti within 2-3 days.
- Intensity:
Little change expected in the next 24 hours, but significant strengthening forecast by late Friday and over the weekend.
Expected to become a hurricane by Saturday afternoon near 16.6N 75.4W.
- Hazards:
- Wind: Tropical storm force winds currently, with hurricane-force winds expected soon.
- Rainfall: Heavy rainfall likely, with localized flooding possible, especially in Jamaica, southwestern Haiti, and potentially eastern Cuba.
- Seas and Swells: 18-20 ft seas near the storm center; swells affecting Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba causing hazardous marine conditions.
- Coastal Impacts: Elevated risk of rough surf, dangerous rip currents, and coastal flooding along affected shorelines.
---
### 3. Regional Impact Summary:
- Jamaica:
Approaching storm with increasing tropical storm conditions, heavy rain, strong winds, and hazardous seas expected.
Potential for localized flooding and wind damage, especially in southwestern areas.
- Haiti (Southwestern Portion):
Increasing threat from heavy rain and strong winds. Vulnerability to flooding and landslides given terrain and infrastructure conditions.
- Eastern Cuba:
Swells and rough seas expected, with possible heavy rain and gusty winds.
- Puerto Rico and Southern Hispaniola: |
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| The article mentions one real person by name:
1. Chan - This name appears at the end of the article as a signature or attribution, indicating the author or meteorologist responsible for the tropical weather discussion. It is identified as a person because it is a proper noun used in the context of authorship or responsibility for the report.
No other personal names are mentioned in the article; all other names refer to geographic locations, weather phenomena, or organizations. |
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| Here are the geographic locations mentioned in the article, along with brief explanations for why each was identified:
1. Miami, FL
- Identified as the location of the National Hurricane Center issuing the report.
2. North America
- Region referenced as part of the area covered by the tropical weather discussion.
3. Central America
- Region referenced as part of the area covered by the tropical weather discussion.
4. Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico)
- Large body of water mentioned in relation to weather features and fronts.
5. Caribbean Sea
- Body of water where Tropical Storm Melissa is located and affecting weather.
6. Northern sections of South America
- Region included in the area covered by the tropical weather discussion.
7. Atlantic Ocean
- Oceanic region referenced extensively for weather patterns and tropical waves.
8. African coast
- Eastern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean area covered by the discussion.
9. Kingston, Jamaica
- City used as a reference point for the location of Tropical Storm Melissa.
10. Jamaica
- Island nation near the storm's forecast path and affected by weather impacts.
11. Haiti
- Country mentioned as potentially affected by Tropical Storm Melissa.
12. Hispaniola
- Island containing Haiti and the Dominican Republic, referenced for weather impacts.
13. Eastern Cuba
- Region forecasted to be affected by swells from Tropical Storm Melissa.
14. Mauritian/Senegal border
- Geographic reference point for the monsoon trough entering the Atlantic.
15. Costa Rica
- Country near the tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough affecting local weather.
16. Panama
- Country near the tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough affecting local weather.
17. Northwestern Colombia
- Region near the tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough affecting local weather.
18. Cape Coral, Florida
- Location near the cold front extending northwestward in the Gulf of America.
19. Corpus Christi, Texas
- Location near the stationary front south of which weather activity is occurring.
20. Bay of Campeche
- Region in the western Gulf of Mexico mentioned in relation to wind and sea conditions.
21. Gulf of Honduras
- Area |
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| The companies or organizations mentioned in the article are:
1. NWS National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Identified because the article header includes "NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL," indicating the source of the tropical weather discussion.
- The National Hurricane Center is referenced multiple times as the issuer of forecasts, advisories, and products related to Tropical Storm Melissa and marine forecasts.
2. National Weather Service (NWS)
- Mentioned as the provider of the "National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic."
- The NWS is the parent organization of the National Hurricane Center and provides weather forecasts and warnings.
3. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
- Implied through the website URLs provided (e.g., nhc.noaa.gov, hurricanes.gov), which are official NOAA domains.
- NOAA is the federal agency overseeing the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.
These organizations were identified because they are explicitly named or implied as sources of weather data, forecasts, advisories, and graphical products referenced in the article. |
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Was this article AI Generated | This article was likely not AI-generated, and several factors support this determination:
1. Highly Technical and Specialized Content:
The article is a detailed Tropical Weather Discussion from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It includes precise meteorological data such as coordinates, wind speeds, pressure values, sea heights, and forecasts. This type of specialized, domain-specific content is typically produced by professional meteorologists or official weather agencies rather than AI models.
2. Use of Standard Meteorological Formatting and Terminology:
The text follows the standard format and conventions used in official weather discussions, including section headers like "...SPECIAL FEATURES...", "...TROPICAL WAVES...", and "...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...". It also uses technical jargon and abbreviations consistent with meteorological reports.
3. Presence of Official Source References and URLs:
The article references official NHC products and provides URLs to NOAA and hurricanes.gov websites for further information. This is typical of official bulletins and less common in AI-generated content unless explicitly prompted.
4. Timestamp and Metadata:
The article begins with a standard meteorological bulletin header including a timestamp (e.g., "000 AXNT20 KNHC 231213 TWDAT") consistent with National Weather Service coding practices. Such metadata is usually included in official products but not commonly generated by AI.
5. Complex Forecasting and Analysis:
The discussion includes nuanced forecast reasoning, such as expected storm tracks, intensity changes, and effects on various geographic locations. This level of detailed analysis suggests expert human input or automated systems designed for meteorological forecasting, rather than general-purpose AI text generation.
6. No Obvious AI Artifacts:
The text does not show typical AI generation artifacts like repetitive phrasing, irrelevant content, or inconsistent data. It is coherent, precise, and logically structured throughout.
---
**Summary:**
The article is almost certainly an official National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion or derived directly from such a source. The technical nature, formatting, references, and data accuracy strongly indicate it was produced by human meteorologists or an official automated weather system, not by a general AI language model. |
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Provide Additional Insights | Certainly! Here are some additional insights and clarifications about the Tropical Weather Discussion you provided:
1. Tropical Storm Melissa's Current Status and Forecast:
- Melissa is currently a tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 knots (about 52 mph) and gusts to 55 knots.
- Located roughly 210 nautical miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica, moving slowly WNW at 3 knots.
- It has a central pressure of 1002 mb, indicating a moderately strong tropical storm.
- Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are mainly in the northwest quadrant, extending up to 95 nm from the center, and also southeast and south of the center.
- Seas near Melissa are very rough, with wave heights of 18 to 20 feet north and east of the center.
- The storm is expected to move slowly northwest or north for the next couple of days, then turn westward over the weekend.
- Significant strengthening is forecast, with Melissa likely becoming a hurricane by late Friday or over the weekend.
- The storm is expected to approach near Jamaica and southwestern Haiti in the next few days, posing potential impacts to these areas.
2. Marine and Coastal Impacts:
- Swells generated by Melissa will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the next several days, increasing the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents.
- Strong winds and high seas are already present east and west of the storm in the Caribbean Sea, with fresh to strong winds and seas ranging from 9 to 13 feet.
- Mariners should heed warnings and consult the National Hurricane Center's high seas and offshore waters forecasts.
3. Other Weather Features:
- Two tropical waves are present in the eastern Atlantic near 30W and 34W, both moving westward with scattered moderate convection. These waves could be monitored for potential development but currently show only isolated convection.
- The monsoon trough and ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) are active near the West African coast and extending westward, with scattered convection south of the trough.
- The East Pacific monsoon trough's tail end is causing showers and thunderstorms near Costa Rica, Panama, and northwestern Colombia.
4. Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic:
- A cold front extends from Florida northwestward and is expected to stall and dissipate by Friday.
- Winds in the Gulf are generally gentle to moderate, but will increase in the eastern Gulf by Friday due |
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