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| 4.0: RANGE LOW: -10.0 to HIGH 10.0 |
| -2.0: RANGE NEG: -10.0 to POS 10.0 |
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| NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion |
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| Profile: [email protected] (nhcwebmaster)
The nhcwebmaster is the official webmaster for the National Hurricane Center (NHC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This account is responsible for maintaining and updating the NHC’s website, ensuring timely and accurate dissemination of hurricane-related information, forecasts, warnings, and educational resources to the public and stakeholders. The nhcwebmaster plays a crucial role in supporting the NHC’s mission to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve preparedness through effective communication of tropical cyclone data. |
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**Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion**
606 AXNT20 KNHC 101033 TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Oct 10 2025
---
**Coverage:**
North America, Central America, Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N.
**Data sources:**
Satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC.
---
### SPECIAL FEATURES
**Tropical Storm Jerry**
- Location: Near 19.2N 62.5W at 10/0900 UTC (70 nm NNE of Northern Leeward Islands)
- Movement: NW at 15 kt
- Minimum central pressure: 1007 mb
- Maximum sustained winds: 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt
- Seas: Peaking near 21 ft (6 m) northeast of the center
- Convection: Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 12N to 25N and between 57W and 64W
- Impacts: Heavy downpours impacting the Lesser Antilles
- Forecast:
- Moving NW, turning north tonight into Saturday
- Then moving north to north-northeast through the weekend
- Will pass north of the Leeward Islands this morning, moving away later today
- Little change in strength today; slow strengthening possible over the weekend
- Hazards:
- Swells affecting Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
- Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions expected
- Swells spreading toward the Greater Antilles today and tonight
- Advisories:
- Consult local weather offices for updates
- Latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: NHC High Seas Forecast
- Latest Jerry Forecast/Advisory: Hurricanes.gov
---
### Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico
- Cause: Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture
- Location: Eastern Mexico along Bay of Campeche from near Tamaulipas/San Luis Potosi border southward to central Veracruz
- Weather: |
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| The sentiment of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion article is predominantly neutral to cautionary, with an emphasis on providing factual, technical information and warnings regarding tropical weather conditions. Here is a detailed sentiment analysis:
### Overall Tone:
- Neutral and Informative: The article is written in a formal, technical style typical of meteorological bulletins. It focuses on presenting objective weather data, forecasts, and warnings without emotional language or subjective opinions.
- Cautionary and Alerting: There is a clear emphasis on alerting readers to potential hazards, such as Tropical Storm Jerry’s impacts, heavy rainfall in eastern Mexico, and rough seas in various regions. The language used is careful and measured, aiming to inform and prepare rather than incite panic.
### Key Sentiment Elements:
1. Special Features - Tropical Storm Jerry:
- The discussion of Tropical Storm Jerry is factual but carries a tone of caution and concern due to the storm’s strength, movement, and associated hazards.
- Phrases like “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” “heavy downpours,” and “slow strengthening is possible” convey a warning tone.
- The forecast details and advisories encourage vigilance and preparedness, reflecting a responsible and serious approach.
2. Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:
- The tone here is alert and advisory, highlighting the risk of “flash and urban flooding” and urging readers to stay updated with local forecasts.
- The language is pragmatic, emphasizing the potential for localized hazards without exaggeration.
3. Tropical Waves, Monsoon Trough/ITCZ, Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean Sections:
- These sections maintain a neutral, descriptive tone focused on weather patterns, wind speeds, and sea conditions.
- The language is technical and objective, aimed at providing situational awareness to mariners, residents, and officials.
4. Forecast and Warnings:
- The forecast segments underscore preparedness and caution, especially regarding wind speeds, seas, and the movement of weather systems.
- Use of terms like “fresh to strong winds,” “rough seas,” and “building seas” signals potential hazards without alarmism.
### Absence of Emotional or Subjective Language:
- The article avoids sensationalism or emotional appeals.
- It does not use language that would induce panic but rather promotes informed awareness.
### Summary:
- The article’s sentiment is primarily neutral with a cautionary undertone.
- It serves as |
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| The global relevance of this Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion article lies in several key aspects:
1. Tropical Storm Jerry's Development and Impact:
- Tropical Storm Jerry is active near the Northern Leeward Islands, with potential to strengthen and affect the Caribbean region.
- It poses immediate threats such as heavy rainfall, strong winds, dangerous surf, and rip currents, which can cause life-threatening conditions.
- Its movement and intensity are critical for regional preparedness and disaster management in the Caribbean and nearby Atlantic coastal areas.
2. Regional Weather Patterns with Wider Influence:
- The article discusses tropical waves and the monsoon trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Atlantic, which are important for monitoring the development of future tropical storms or hurricanes.
- These weather features influence weather patterns not only locally but also across the tropical Atlantic and adjacent continents, affecting rainfall, storms, and sea conditions.
3. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Risks in Eastern Mexico:
- Significant rainfall and potential flooding in eastern Mexico have implications for local agriculture, infrastructure, and populations.
- Flooding in this region can also affect broader economic activities and migration patterns.
4. Maritime and Coastal Safety:
- The discussion of rough seas, strong winds, and swell propagation is critical for maritime navigation, fisheries, and coastal communities.
- These conditions can impact shipping routes across the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, affecting global trade and transport.
5. Weather Forecasting and Disaster Preparedness:
- The article highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and forecasting by meteorological agencies, which is vital for early warning systems globally.
- The information supports international cooperation in disaster risk reduction and climate resilience, as tropical storms can have cascading effects beyond immediate areas.
6. Extratropical Low Development and Broader Weather Systems:
- The expected formation of an extratropical low off Florida and its northeastward movement indicates changes in weather patterns that can affect the eastern United States and western Atlantic.
- These systems can influence weather far beyond the tropics, including impacts on temperature, precipitation, and storm tracks in North America and potentially Europe.
**Summary:**
While the primary focus is on the Atlantic basin, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas, the weather phenomena described have broader implications for global climate patterns, international maritime safety, disaster management, and economic activities. Monitoring such tropical weather discussions is essential for understanding and mitigating the impacts of tropical storms and related weather |
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| Threat Assessment: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (October 10, 2025)
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### 1. Tropical Storm Jerry
- Location & Movement: Centered near 19.2N 62.5W, approximately 70 nautical miles NNE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving northwest at 15 knots.
- Intensity: Maximum sustained winds 45 knots (52 mph) with gusts to 55 knots (63 mph), minimum central pressure 1007 mb.
- Seas: Peak wave heights near 21 feet (6 meters) northeast of the center.
- Forecast Track & Strength:
- Expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands today, then move away.
- Slow strengthening possible over the weekend.
- Projected to move northward to north-northeastward through the weekend and early next week, reaching near 31.6N 56.7W by Tuesday.
- Hazards:
- Life-threatening surf and rip currents affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and expected to spread to the Greater Antilles.
- Heavy rainfall causing flash and urban flooding risks.
- Rough seas and strong winds impacting marine and coastal activities.
- Threat Level:
- High for marine interests and coastal communities in the Leeward Islands and northeastern Caribbean due to surf, rip currents, and heavy rainfall.
- Moderate for potential strengthening and further impacts as Jerry moves northward.
---
### 2. Significant Rainfall in Eastern Mexico
- Cause: Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture along the Bay of Campeche.
- Areas Affected: Eastern Mexico from Tamaulipas/San Luis Potosi border southward to central Veracruz.
- Threats:
- Periodic heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.
- Flash flooding and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and hilly terrain.
- Threat Level:
- Moderate to high risk for localized flooding and associated hazards such as road washouts, landslides, and disruption to daily life.
---
### 3. Tropical Waves
- Eastern Atlantic Wave: Near 38W, south of 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt with scattered moderate convection.
- Central Caribbean Wave: Near 74W, south of 19N, moving west at 10 kt with |
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| The only real person mentioned in the article is:
- Delgado: This name appears at the very end of the article, likely as the author or forecaster responsible for the discussion. It is identified as a person because it is presented as a single proper noun without association to any geographic location, weather phenomenon, or organization, fitting the common practice of signing weather discussions by the forecaster's last name.
No other personal names appear in the text; all other terms refer to weather systems, locations, or organizations. |
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| Here are the geographic locations mentioned in the article along with brief explanations for why each was identified:
1. Miami, FL
- Identified as the location of the National Hurricane Center issuing the discussion.
2. North America
- Region covered by the tropical weather discussion.
3. Central America
- Region covered by the tropical weather discussion.
4. Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico)
- Area discussed for weather conditions, including rainfall and wind patterns.
5. Caribbean Sea
- Area discussed with tropical waves and Tropical Storm Jerry's location and impact.
6. Northern sections of South America
- Part of the broader region covered by the weather discussion.
7. Atlantic Ocean
- Area covered, including tropical storm movements and weather systems.
8. African coast
- Eastern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean area discussed (from Equator to 31N).
9. Northern Leeward Islands
- Location near which Tropical Storm Jerry is centered and moving.
10. Lesser Antilles
- Impacted by heavy downpours from Tropical Storm Jerry.
11. Windward Islands
- Affected by swells generated by Tropical Storm Jerry.
12. Virgin Islands
- Affected by swells generated by Tropical Storm Jerry.
13. Puerto Rico
- Affected by swells generated by Tropical Storm Jerry.
14. Greater Antilles
- Area expected to be affected by swells spreading from Tropical Storm Jerry.
15. Eastern Mexico
- Area experiencing significant rainfall due to convergent low-level winds and tropical moisture.
16. Bay of Campeche
- Part of eastern Mexico experiencing heavy showers and thunderstorms.
17. Tamaulipas (State in Mexico)
- Mentioned as near the border where rainfall is occurring.
18. San Luis Potosi (State in Mexico)
- Mentioned as near the border where rainfall is occurring.
19. Veracruz (State in Mexico)
- Area southward experiencing rainfall.
20. Eastern Atlantic
- Location of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave.
21. Central Caribbean
- Area near which a tropical wave is located.
22. Western Caribbean
- Area near which a tropical wave is located.
23. Senegal (coast)
- Location |
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| The article mentions the following organizations:
1. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
- Identified because the header states "NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL," indicating the source of the tropical weather discussion. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a division of the National Weather Service (NWS) responsible for monitoring and forecasting tropical weather.
2. National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Mentioned multiple times in the text, including references to the "latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center" and "latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory." The NHC is the authoritative body issuing forecasts and advisories for tropical storms like Jerry.
3. Local weather offices / local weather agency
- The article advises readers to consult products from their "local weather office" and "local weather agency" for more information and flood statements. These are generic references to regional meteorological organizations responsible for localized weather updates.
No other company or organization names are explicitly mentioned in the article. The focus is primarily on meteorological entities involved in weather monitoring and forecasting. |
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Was this article AI Generated | This article is very unlikely to be AI-generated. Several factors support this determination:
1. Highly Technical and Specialized Content:
The article contains detailed meteorological data, including precise coordinates, wind speeds, pressure readings, and forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Jerry. It uses domain-specific terminology (e.g., "monsoon trough," "ITCZ," "scatterometer satellite pass," "anticyclonic flow") that typically requires expert knowledge or access to specialized datasets.
2. Structured Format Consistent with Official Weather Discussions:
The format and style closely match those used by official agencies like the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This includes sections like "SPECIAL FEATURES," "TROPICAL WAVES," "GULF OF AMERICA," and the use of timestamps and bulletin numbers (e.g., "606 AXNT20 KNHC 101033"). AI-generated content often lacks such rigid structural conventions or replicates them imperfectly.
3. Inclusion of Precise Numerical Data and Forecasts:
The article provides exact storm positions (latitude/longitude), movement speeds, wind gusts, and sea heights, along with time-specific forecast points extending several days ahead. This level of precision is generally derived from real-time meteorological models and observations, not typically fabricated by AI.
4. References to Official Sources and URLs:
It includes direct references to official websites (e.g., https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.hurricanes.gov) for further information, which is characteristic of official weather communications.
5. Use of Meteorological Jargon and Conventions:
The discussion uses conventions such as "kt" for knots, "mb" for millibars, and phrases like "scattered moderate convection," which are standard in meteorological bulletins but less common in AI-generated text unless specifically trained on such data.
6. Timestamp and Authorship Signature:
The article ends with "$$ Delgado," a typical signature format used in official weather products to denote the forecaster or author, which AI rarely replicates authentically.
**Summary:**
The article’s technical accuracy, structured format, precise data, specialized terminology, and official references strongly indicate it is an authentic weather discussion product likely produced by human meteorologists or an official weather agency, not AI-generated content. |
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Provide Additional Insights | Certainly! Here are some additional insights and context regarding the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion you provided:
### Tropical Storm Jerry
- Current Status: Jerry is a moderate tropical storm located near 19.2N 62.5W, just north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.
- Movement: It is moving northwest at 15 knots, with an expected turn to the north and then north-northeast over the weekend.
- Intensity: Maximum sustained winds are 45 knots (about 52 mph) with gusts to 55 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1007 mb, indicating a fairly organized system but not yet a hurricane.
- Forecast: Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend as Jerry moves away from the Leeward Islands. The storm will pass north of the islands, reducing direct land impacts there.
- Hazards: High seas (up to 21 ft northeast of the center) and life-threatening surf and rip currents are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Swells will spread to the Greater Antilles, so coastal areas should remain vigilant.
- Track: Jerry is forecast to track northward away from the islands and then northeastward, potentially moving into cooler waters and higher wind shear later in the period, which may limit rapid intensification.
### Other Weather Features
- Eastern Mexico: Heavy rainfall is expected due to convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture, especially along the Bay of Campeche and parts of Veracruz. Flash flooding and urban flooding are possible in low-lying and hilly areas.
- Tropical Waves: Several tropical waves are present:
- Eastern Atlantic wave near 38W with scattered convection.
- Central Caribbean wave near 74W with scattered thunderstorms.
- Western Caribbean wave near 84W with scattered convection.
- These waves could be monitored for potential development but currently show no immediate signs of intensification.
### Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
- Gulf of Mexico: A frontal boundary and surface trough are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas, especially in the northeastern Gulf.
- Caribbean Sea: Light to gentle winds prevail except near Jerry, where fresh to strong southerly winds and large swells are impacting the area.
- High Pressure Influence: A strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley is influencing winds and sea conditions in the Gulf and western Atlantic |
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