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| 9.0: RANGE LOW: -10.0 to HIGH 10.0 |
| -6.0: RANGE NEG: -10.0 to POS 10.0 |
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| NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion |
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| Profile: [email protected] (nhcwebmaster)
The nhcwebmaster is the official webmaster for the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This role involves managing and maintaining the NHC’s online presence, ensuring timely and accurate dissemination of hurricane-related information and updates to the public. The nhcwebmaster supports the NHC’s mission to provide critical weather forecasts, warnings, and educational resources to enhance public safety during tropical cyclone events. |
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**000 AXNT20 KNHC 281056 TWDAT**
**Tropical Weather Discussion**
**NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL**
**1215 UTC Tue Oct 28 2025**
---
### Tropical Weather Discussion for:
- North America
- Central America
- Gulf of America
- Caribbean Sea
- Northern sections of South America
- Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N
*Information based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.*
*Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.*
---
### ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
**Major Hurricane Melissa**
- Location: Near 17.2N 78.3W at 28/0900 UTC (100 nm WSW of Kingston, Jamaica)
- Movement: NNE at 4 kt
- Minimum central pressure: 901 mb
- Maximum sustained winds: 150 kt, gusts to 185 kt
- Category: 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
- Seas: Peak seas limited to around 30 ft due to shallow waters
- Convection: Numerous strong convection from 14N to 20N between 71W and 81W
- Outer bands extend to Nicaragua
**Forecast and Impacts:**
- Expected to turn northeast and increase forward speed later today, with faster northeastward motion Wed and Thu.
- Core track: Over Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba Wed morning, southeastern or central Bahamas Wed later.
- Intensity: Likely fluctuations before landfall on Jamaica, but remains an extremely dangerous major hurricane at Jamaica and southeastern Cuba landfalls, and hurricane strength across southeastern Bahamas.
**Storm Surge Threats:**
- South coast of Jamaica: Life-threatening surge of 9 to 13 feet above ground level near and east of landfall. Accompanied by large destructive waves.
- Northwest coast of Jamaica (Montego Bay): Possible 2 to 4 feet surge above ground level.
- Southeast coast of Cuba (late today/Wed): Surge of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels near and east of landfall, with large destructive waves.
- Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos (Wed): Surge of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground.
**Additional Hazards:**
- Swells affecting Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba |
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| The sentiment of the article, which is a Tropical Weather Discussion from the National Hurricane Center, is predominantly serious, urgent, and cautionary. Here is a detailed sentiment analysis:
### Tone and Mood:
- Serious and Urgent: The article discusses a major weather event—Major Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane with extremely high sustained winds and low central pressure. The language is formal, technical, and focused on conveying critical weather information to the public and authorities.
- Cautionary and Warning: The discussion emphasizes life-threatening conditions such as a storm surge up to 13 feet, destructive waves, and dangerous surf and rip current conditions. The repeated advisories to consult local weather offices and official forecasts underscore the need for vigilance and preparedness.
- Informative and Technical: The article uses meteorological terminology and detailed data (coordinates, wind speeds, pressure values) to provide a precise and scientific overview. This reflects an objective and factual tone aimed at professionals and the general public needing accurate information.
### Sentiment Breakdown:
- Concern and Alertness: The description of the hurricane’s strength and expected path, including landfall over Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, conveys a high level of concern. Words like “extremely dangerous,” “life-threatening,” “major hurricane,” and “destructive waves” highlight the severity of the situation.
- Predictive and Preparedness-Oriented: The forecast details about the hurricane’s movement and intensity fluctuations serve to prepare readers for upcoming impacts. The mention of additional weather features like cold fronts and gale warnings extends the scope of concern to other regions.
- Neutral to Negative Impact: While the article is neutral in its presentation of facts, the content inherently carries a negative impact due to the destructive nature of the hurricane and associated weather hazards.
### Key Emotional Elements:
- Fear and Caution: Implied through the warnings about storm surge, flooding, and dangerous seas.
- Urgency: The timing of the hurricane’s expected landfall and rapid changes in conditions create a sense of immediacy.
- Responsibility: The article encourages readers to seek further updates and heed local advisories, emphasizing the importance of safety and preparedness.
### Summary:
The sentiment of the article is predominantly serious and cautionary, with a strong focus on alerting and preparing the public for an imminent major hurricane threat. The technical and formal tone supports clear communication of potentially life-threatening weather conditions, underscoring the urgency and gravity of the situation. |
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| The article is a Tropical Weather Discussion from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) dated October 28, 2025, focusing on the Atlantic basin, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and surrounding areas. It provides detailed meteorological information about Major Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane, and other weather features.
### Global Relevance of the Article:
1. Severe Weather Impact in the Caribbean and North America:
- Major Hurricane Melissa is a very powerful and life-threatening Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 knots and a central pressure of 901 mb.
- The hurricane is forecasted to make landfall on Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, causing extreme storm surge (up to 13 feet in some areas), destructive waves, and life-threatening conditions.
- The impact will affect millions of people in these regions and cause significant damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and economies.
2. Humanitarian and Economic Concerns:
- The storm surge and high winds will likely lead to widespread flooding, power outages, and destruction of homes and businesses.
- Emergency response and disaster preparedness will be critical in Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and surrounding islands.
- Economic disruptions in these regions could have ripple effects on tourism, trade, and regional economies.
3. Maritime and Aviation Safety:
- Rough seas and gale-force winds are forecasted in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, affecting shipping routes and offshore operations.
- The article warns of dangerous surf and rip currents extending to Bermuda and other Atlantic islands, impacting maritime safety and coastal activities.
4. Climate and Meteorological Significance:
- The intensity and track of Hurricane Melissa provide valuable data for climate scientists studying tropical cyclone behavior in the context of climate change.
- The storm's development and progression contribute to global understanding of hurricane dynamics, forecasting, and preparedness strategies.
5. Potential Broader Weather Effects:
- The cold fronts and associated weather systems described may influence weather patterns in the southeastern United States and parts of Central America.
- The transition of Melissa into an extratropical cyclone as it moves northward could affect weather in the North Atlantic and potentially parts of Europe, demonstrating the interconnectedness of weather systems.
### Summary:
This article is globally relevant as it documents a major natural disaster event with significant humanitarian, economic, and environmental implications. It highlights the importance of international cooperation in disaster preparedness, response, and climate research. The information is crucial for governments, meteorologists, emergency |
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| ### Threat Assessment: Major Hurricane Melissa (October 28, 2025)
---
#### 1. Storm Overview:
- Category: 5 (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)
- Location: Near 17.2N 78.3W, ~100 nautical miles WSW of Kingston, Jamaica
- Movement: North-northeast at 4 knots (slow forward speed)
- Central Pressure: 901 mb (very low, indicating extreme intensity)
- Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 knots (approx. 173 mph) with gusts to 185 knots (approx. 213 mph)
- Size: Outer bands extend as far as Nicaragua; strong convection between 14N and 20N from 71W to 81W
---
#### 2. Geographical Areas at Risk:
- Jamaica: Core expected to make landfall today as a major hurricane
- Southeastern Cuba: Expected landfall Wednesday morning
- Southeastern or Central Bahamas: Expected Wednesday
- Turks and Caicos Islands: Impact expected Wednesday
- Other Areas: Swells and rough seas expected in Hispaniola, Cayman Islands, Bermuda, and parts of the Gulf of Mexico
---
#### 3. Primary Threats:
##### a) Wind Damage:
- Category 5 sustained winds with gusts up to 185 knots pose catastrophic wind damage risks.
- Expected to maintain major hurricane status through Jamaica and southeastern Cuba landfalls.
- Potential for widespread destruction of buildings, infrastructure, power outages, and downed trees.
##### b) Storm Surge:
- Jamaica:
- Life-threatening storm surge along south coast.
- Heights of 9 to 13 feet above ground likely near and east of landfall.
- Montego Bay (northwest coast) could see 2 to 4 feet surge.
- Southeastern Cuba:
- Surge of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels possible.
- Bahamas and Turks and Caicos:
- Surge of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground.
- Accompanied by large, destructive waves, increasing coastal flooding and erosion risk.
##### c) Heavy Rainfall and Flooding:
- Intense convection and outer rain bands extend widely.
- Likely to cause flash flooding, river flooding, and landslides, especially in mountainous terrain of Jamaica |
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| The article mentions one real person by name:
1. Ramos - This name appears at the very end of the article, following the "$$" symbols, which is a common convention used by meteorologists and forecasters to sign or identify the author or forecaster who prepared the report. Therefore, "Ramos" is identified as a person, likely the meteorologist or forecaster responsible for this Tropical Weather Discussion.
No other personal names are mentioned in the article. The rest of the text refers to locations, weather phenomena, and agencies. |
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| Here are the geographic locations mentioned in the article along with brief explanations for why each was identified:
1. Miami, FL - Identified as the location of the National Hurricane Center issuing the report.
2. North America - The discussion covers weather affecting this continent.
3. Central America - Included in the area covered by the tropical weather discussion.
4. Gulf of America - A key body of water discussed for weather conditions and gale warnings.
5. Caribbean Sea - Central to the discussion of Hurricane Melissa and surrounding weather.
6. Northern sections of South America - Part of the geographic scope of the weather discussion.
7. Atlantic Ocean - The ocean basin where the hurricane and weather systems are tracked.
8. African coast - Eastern boundary of the area covered by the tropical weather discussion.
9. Jamaica - Location near which Hurricane Melissa is centered and expected to make landfall.
10. Kingston, Jamaica - Specific city near the hurricane's position.
11. Nicaragua - Mentioned as an area reached by the hurricane's outer bands.
12. Southeastern Cuba - Forecasted path of the hurricane.
13. Southeastern or central Bahamas - Areas expected to be affected by the hurricane.
14. Montego Bay, Jamaica - Specific location on Jamaica's northwest coast mentioned for potential storm surge.
15. Southeast coast of Cuba - Expected to experience significant storm surge.
16. Southeastern Bahamas - Area forecasted to experience storm surge and rough seas.
17. Turks and Caicos Islands - Mentioned as affected by storm surge and swells.
18. Hispaniola - Area expected to experience swells and dangerous surf conditions.
19. Cayman Islands - Also expected to be affected by swells from the hurricane.
20. Bermuda - Mentioned as a location where swells will reach later in the week.
21. Texas coast - Starting point of a strong cold front affecting the Gulf of America.
22. Mexico - Country along the Gulf coast where gale force winds are expected.
23. Tampico, Mexico - Specific coastal city offshore of which gale force winds are expected.
24. Veracruz, Mexico - Another coastal city offshore of which gale force winds are expected.
25. Senegal - Location near where the monsoon trough terminates |
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| The companies or organizations mentioned in the article are:
1. NWS National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Identified because the article is a Tropical Weather Discussion issued by the "NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL," which is the official U.S. government agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting tropical weather systems such as hurricanes.
2. National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Mentioned again later in the article as the source of the latest High Seas Forecast and Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory, with URLs provided (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov and www.hurricanes.gov). This reinforces that the NHC is the authoritative organization providing detailed forecasts and advisories on Hurricane Melissa.
No other companies or organizations are named in the article. The focus is primarily on weather data and forecasts related to Hurricane Melissa issued by the National Hurricane Center. |
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Was this article AI Generated | This article is very unlikely to be AI-generated and appears to be a genuine official weather discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Several factors support this conclusion:
1. Format and Style:
- The text follows the exact format and conventions used in official NHC Tropical Weather Discussions, including headers, timestamps, location coordinates, and meteorological terminology.
- It uses standard meteorological abbreviations and jargon consistent with professional weather bulletins (e.g., "kt" for knots, "mb" for millibars, "tstms" for thunderstorms, "tropical wave," "monsoon trough/ITCZ," and specific geographic coordinates).
2. Specificity and Detail:
- The report contains very detailed and precise meteorological data such as exact coordinates, wind speeds, pressure values, and forecast track points.
- It includes references to official products and websites (e.g., www.nhc.noaa.gov), which is typical for official NHC communications.
- The discussion covers multiple regions and weather phenomena in a comprehensive manner, consistent with professional meteorological analysis.
3. Technical Accuracy and Consistency:
- The information is consistent with how a real tropical weather discussion would be structured, including updates on hurricane position, intensity, forecast track, storm surge, and marine conditions.
- It references expected weather impacts and hazards in a way that matches the professional communication style of the NHC.
4. Signature and Formatting:
- The article ends with the standard "$$" symbol and the forecaster's name ("Ramos"), which is typical for official NHC discussions.
- The timestamp and product codes at the top (e.g., "000 AXNT20 KNHC 281056 TWDAT") are consistent with official NHC product headers.
5. Lack of AI Hallmarks:
- There are no obvious signs of AI generation such as unnatural phrasing, repetition, or generic content.
- The text is highly technical and domain-specific, which is less common in AI-generated content unless specifically trained or prompted for such content.
**Summary**:
The article is almost certainly a genuine National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion rather than AI-generated text. The professional formatting, technical detail, specific data points, and official references strongly indicate it is an authentic meteorological product. |
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Provide Additional Insights | Certainly! Here are some additional insights and important points based on the Tropical Weather Discussion for October 28, 2025, focusing on Major Hurricane Melissa and other weather features:
### Major Hurricane Melissa Overview
- Location & Movement: Melissa is centered near 17.2N 78.3W, about 100 nautical miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. It is moving north-northeast at 4 knots.
- Intensity: Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 knots (about 173 mph) and gusts up to 185 knots. Central pressure is extremely low at 901 mb, indicating a very intense hurricane.
- Size & Impact Area: Strong convection spans from 14N to 20N between 71W and 81W, with outer bands reaching Nicaragua. The storm’s influence extends broadly across the Caribbean Sea.
- Forecast Track: Expected to move over Jamaica today, then southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and the southeastern or central Bahamas later Wednesday. It will accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Intensity Forecast: While some fluctuations in strength are possible, Melissa will remain a major, extremely dangerous hurricane through landfalls in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba, and still be a hurricane crossing the Bahamas.
### Hazards and Impacts
- Storm Surge:
- Jamaica’s south coast: Life-threatening surge of 9 to 13 feet above ground level near and east of the landfall point, with large destructive waves.
- Northwest coast of Jamaica (Montego Bay area): 2 to 4 feet surge possible.
- Southeastern Cuba: Surge of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels.
- Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos: Surge of 4 to 6 feet.
- Marine Conditions: Large swells and dangerous surf/rip currents will affect Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and Bermuda over the next several days.
- Life-Threatening Conditions: The combination of storm surge, high winds, and rough seas poses significant risks to life and property in affected areas.
### Other Weather Features
- Gulf of America: A strong cold front is moving off the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds especially in the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Gale conditions are expected offshore Mexico near Tampico and Veracruz.
- Tropical Waves: Two tropical waves are noted near 51W and |
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